Fairhaven, NJ (WFN) -- Sean Penn and Naomi Watts will walk away with Oscars at this year's Academy Awards Ceremony.

That's the prediction of New Jersey statistician Jay Bennett, who has created a formula which forecasts which actors will win Hollywood's top honor.

If an actor appears in a movie nominated for Best Picture, their odds are increased -- but if they've previously won an Oscar, that's a handicap. Their chances also increase the closer they are to the age 43.

Based on the formula, Sean Penn is a sure thing for the Best Actor category, because his movie, "Mystic River," is nominated for Best Picture; he's never won an Oscar before; and he was exactly 43 when the movie came out.

Things are trickier in the Best Actress category, where none of the women appear in a Best Picture nominated film and only one -- Diane Keaton -- already has an Oscar.

That leaves their ages as the biggest factor, and 35-year-old Watts comes closest to the "magic age" of 43.

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