Numerous farms are expected to go out of business over the next decade because prices for many agricultural goods are low, a situation that has many causes. First of all, U.S. farms continue to produce more than is needed to meet domestic and export requirements. Increasing productivity means that it takes less farm labor to produce crops and livestock than in the past. In addition, market pressures on the family farm will continue to drive consolidation in the industry, as farms become bigger and more likely to be controlled by large corporations. The decline in employment will be fastest, at 31 percent, among self-employed and unpaid family workers, most of whom are farmers and their families. Employment of wage and salary workers is expected to decline by 2 percent compared with 16 percent growth for all industries combined.

Employment on many farms will most likely continue to be characterized by low wages and lack of benefits. Employment of farmers and ranchers is projected to decrease. Employment of agricultural managers, farmworkers, and graders and sorters is projected to rise, but more slowly than the average for all occupations. Prospects should be best for agricultural workers employed by nurseries and greenhouses.

Employment declines, however are being moderated by other changes taking place in agriculture. Employment in aquaculture, for example, has been growing steadily over the past 10 years in response to growth in the demand for fish. Because of low prices for some agricultural commodities, more farmers—including some in the Midwest—are switching to specialty crops or aquaculture production. New developments in the marketing of milk and other agricultural produce through farmer-owned and -operated cooperatives hold promise for some dairy and other farms. Furthermore, demand for organic farm produce—grown mostly on small to medium-sized farms—is growing. Consumers are becoming more wary of the possible effects the pesticides and fertilizers used in conventional agriculture. The production of crops without the use of these chemicals is allowing farms of small acreage—which only 12 years ago appeared to have almost no future as working farms—to remain economically viable.

Also, some Federal, State, and local government programs provide assistance targeted at small farms. For example, some programs allow farmers to sell the development rights to their property to nonprofit organizations pledged to preserving green space. This immediately lowers the market value of the land—and the property taxes levied on it—making farming more affordable.

Prospects for employment in forestry will be below average as the sector moves towards greater mechanization, replacing many lower skilled workers with more machinery tended by a few technicians. In addition, rising imports of wood and wood products are expected to continue. Other countries, particularly Canada, have invested more heavily in their lumber and paper mills than has the United States, and that has enabled them to keep prices low. The best job opportunities will be for those forestry workers with more skills, such as technicians and foresters.

In the fishing sector, increases in imports and efforts to revive fisheries by limiting fishing activity in them will continue to lead to employment declines. Although certain areas of the country, such as Alaska, will continue to harvest massive amounts of fish, and remain relatively prosperous, the Nation's fisheries are a delicate resource. To the extent that they are damaged by such factors as coastal pollution or overfishing, there will be fewer jobs for fishers.